Oil production continues to increase in the US. The country’s production level reaches new records in early 2019, and the increased US output has to some extent offset the effects of the production limitations, which the OPEC countries and Russia agreed to implement in December last year. The price on a barrel of Brent-oil is currently stable around 66 US dollars.
In a new report and forecast, which the International Energy Agency (IEA) has published, the agency estimates that the US oil production will continue to increase rapidly during the coming years. Last year, the production level was at 10.9 million barrels per year, but the IEA expects the level to increase to 12.4 million barrels this year and 13.2 million barrels in 2020. It is first and foremost the country’s booming shale industry which means, that the Americans are able to extent their output this much.
According to the IEA, the US export level is also going to increase during the coming years. If the estimates of the IEA are correct, the US will have surpassed Russia as the second largest oil exporter in the world by 2024, and will meanwhile close in on Saudi Arabia in first place. These countries are not expected to increase production nearly as much, as they wish for higher prices and would like to see a more limited growth in global supply.
The growth in production and export coincides with an IEA estimate of a yearly increase in global oil demand of approximately 1.2 million barrels per day towards 2024. This is a small slowdown in growth, which to some extent is caused by continuous efficiency gains an increasing role of electric vehicles in certain parts of the world.