Monday, October 7 was the most expensive day on the Nordic spot market in nearly half a year. The system price for the day was 44.10 EUR/MWh, and we have to go back to April 16 to find a day with higher prices.
By early October, the Nordic area has already been struck by cool weather due to a high pressure, which has dominated the region for around a week now. The Nordic average temperature Monday was expected at 4 degrees, which is 5 degrees below seasonal average. The cold causes increased demand across the area, and the supply side is under pressure as well. Wind production is low, as it is often the case during high pressure weather.
The cold weather is expected to continue towards the coming weekend, before milder, wetter and windier conditions are expected to take over from the end of this week and early next week. Analyst agency Wattsight estimate, that the system price until the weekend will be around 38-40 EUR/MWh, and this means that week 41 could get close to an average system price of 40 EUR/MWh.
The surprisingly high spot prices are however in no way able to stop the price falls on the forward market, which just continues downwards Monday. As the weather forecasts indicate that the cold conditions with lower wind power generation will not last long, the high spot prices do not affect the long end of the curve.